November retail sales data is due from Australia at 0030 GMT
- expected 0.4% m/m
- prior 0.5% m/m
Here is my quick preview of what the analysts will say afterwards:
- "The real focus will be the December data which is not due until next month"
Srsly, that's what it'll be.
Ah well - there is much interest in retail sales data anyway. Even if its just the November figures. Retail sales results have been on the weak side, showing lacklustre consumer spending as slow wage growth and high levels of consumer debt weigh on discretionary spending.
A couple of bank previews, quickies:
TD:
- Consumers ended 2017 on a buoyant note, so we look for a small uptick in November, and a more substantial increase in December
RBC:
- November's report should give us further insight into whether a rebound off a very low base is indeed in the works. We forecast a decent, if unexceptional, read of 0.4%% m/m, 2.0% y/y.
- The recent lift in consumer confidence back above the 100 optimist/pessimist mark over the last few months provides a positive lead indication, but high indebtedness and low wage growth are providing little breathing room for consumers.
- The last (October) retail sales report saw a small rebound, +0.5% (cons +0.3%) with a small upward revision to September. Consumption growth has been weakening for some time, particularly in July and August of last year, which saw sizeable negative m/m prints for a total contraction of 0.8%, dragging y/y growth below 2%. Ex-food, the trend has been even softer, with September y/y growth registering just 0.5%.
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An upside surprise should be a positive for the AUD, while a downside one should be the opposite. But ... yeah, the 'we need to see the December figures' will be the most common response.
