Reserve Bank of Australia policy announcement is due on Tuesday 5 February 2019 at 0330GMT
Previews poste earlier can be found here:
- AUD traders - RBA meet Tuesday 5 February 2019 , preview
- RBC - Reserve Bank of Australia first monetary policy meeting for 2019 is tomorrow - preview
- Barclays on the Reserve Bank of Australia
- preview of the Reserve Bank of Australia meeting on Tuesday February 5 via Capital Economics
This now (in brief) from TD. The previews is titled Will the RBA capitulate? and TD is quick with the answer …. no (bold bit, bolding mine):
- The tone of the RBA's Feb statement is likely to be less upbeat than the Dec statement. However the statement is likely to disappoint the doves.
- We anticipate the Bank is likely to reaffirm growth to track above trend (2.75%) and for inflation to return to target, but for progress to be 'gradual'.
- The RBA commentary is likely to flag downgrades to GDP forecasts but for CPI forecasts to remain unchanged. Risk is for inflation to take longer to return to target.
- If the Bank removes 'gradual' from the statement, this would allude to deeper cuts to GDP forecasts and the inflation profile.
TD rank the likelihood of RBA policy bias as:
- Hawkish approx. 0%% likely
- Neutral approx. 60%
- Dovish 40%
For Neutral the bank looks for AUD reaction to 0.7280, and for dovish to 0.7150.
