The recent highs at 1.3795 are not all that far away now. The market is undoubtedly long but its also very bullish and this morning’s 50bps rate cut by the RBNZ will have encouraged hedge funds and CTAs to add to their existing longs.
If the 1.3795 level is tested again and confirmed, then a dip to the 38.2% retracement of 1.2770/1.3795 at 1.3400 would be logical. If the market breaks straight above 1.3800 then all bets are off but with supposedly large offers above 1.0200, if the AUD/NZD were to break higher it would probably come via a fall in the NZD/USD.
My best guess on this pair is a period of consolidation 1.34/1.38 before the next bullish leg emerges.
