The 50% of the move up from the November 2011 low comes in at the 1.02579 level. This level has been tested over the last hour or so of trading, but momentum below the level has been quite muted (low reached 1.02533). Profit takers seem to be using the area to take cover shorts and the dip buyers have also found the level to be attractive.
Over the last month of trading the price has been below the 50% level on six separate days. The lowest the price got over that period has been 1.0224, and on all but one of the days, the price has closed back above the 50% level (the low close has been 1.0245).
This area will need to be broken, to solicit more selling momentum it seems. I would expect stops below the level.
Looking at the 5 minute chart, the price has moved steadily lower today. There is a defined channel (albeit a wide one). The price at the low today bounced off the lower boundary. Traders looking to keep the downward bias intact and sell on a rally, will be eyeing the 1.02709 to 1.02764. This is the 38.2% -50% of the last leg down. The 100 bar MA is also in that area (and moving down) at 1.0275.
