April Trade surplus for Australia
Comes in at 555mln .... yeah, I had to do a double-take on that
- expected surplus was 2bnAUD
- prior was + AUD3.107bn
Exports earnings are still getting a tailwind from commodity prices, but declines in these are likely to weigh in coming months. And with today's results it looks like its started to get worse already!
- Exports down 8% m/m
- Imports down 1% m/m
Having said this, some of the blame is on the category four tropical cyclone that hit the North Queensland coast - Tropical Cyclone Debbie. Wind and storm surges caused significant damage to transport infrastructure & ports, and resulted in a big drop in coal exports for April (exports fell A$2.8bn in sa terms)
The AUD/USD is lower. It had been losing ground for most of the morning (not much, but notable) and its just given away a little more.
April is the first month of Q2, so the big drop in exports is not a good beginning for the Q2 'net exports' figure. yes, some of it is weather-related, but will the big fall be recovered in May and June figures?
I suggest not .... what I've seen indicates that exports in May will bounce back, but there will be no added extra to 'make up' the drop in April .... so still down y/y. But I've been wrong before!
