Conference Board Leading Index for September

  • The Conference Board Leading Economic Index (LEI) for Australia declined 0.1 percent
  • Coincident Economic Index (CEI) increased 0.2 percent in September

LEI

  • The strengths among the leading indicators have become less widespread than the weaknesses in recent months.

Four of the seven components increased in September

  • The positive contributors to the index - in order from the largest positive contributor to the smallest - are money supply*, the yield spread, gross operating surplus*, and rural goods exports
  • Share prices and building approvals declined, while the sales to inventories ratio remained unchanged in September.

LEI has declined in six of the last seven months

  • The downward trend in the LEI combined with the slower growth rate of the CEI suggests that the current economic expansion will continue at a modest pace in the near-term, but downside risks may persist.

CEI

  • Improved in September for the fifth consecutive month
  • Coincident economic index increased 1.1 percent (about a 2.2 percent annual rate) in the six-month period ending September 2015, moderately less than its growth of 1.4 percent (about a 2.8 percent annual rate) over the previous six months

Three of the four components increased in September

  • Increases - in order from the largest positive contributor to the smallest - occurred in household gross disposable income, retail trade, and industrial production.
  • Employed persons was unchanged in September.