Inventory numbers feed into the GDP calculation (due on Wednesday this week, preview here)

Q4 Inventories,

  • expected +0.5% q/q, prior +0.8%

There had been concerns that inventories would come in at a negative reading q/q (though note the consensus amongst analysts was for a 0.5% rise q/q as noted in the post headline). While the result has come in at a miss it does nevertheless augur well for a decent result on the Q4 GDP. Recall Q3 GDP was a negative q/q, which if followed by a negative in Q4 would constitute a 'technical recession' (2 consecutive quarters of negative q/q GDP). This looks unlikely now.

more to come