An earlier preview is here:
- On the economic calendar in Australia today - Wages data a key, preview
- due at 0130GMT
- expected +0.6% q/q, prior +0.5%
- expected +2.1% y/y, prior +2.1%
And, before the wages data we get:
- Economic calendar due from Australia today - consumer sentiment preview
- prior +3.9% m/m to 106.1
- at 0030GMT
Preview via NAB:
- numbers will not cause a shift in the RBA's view
- Our models suggest Q2 wages growth will print another 0.5% q/q, which means year-ended growth will slow slightly from 2.1% to 2%.
- Despite a (marginally) lower unemployment rate in Q2, if anything, our wage monitoring models suggest more risk of a lower 0.4% q/q print than a higher 0.6% q/q print.
- In part, this reflects still elevated underemployment, modest inflationary expectations and low average wages growth in Enterprise Bargaining Agreements (EBAs). EBAs will remain a headwind given they are still running below aggregate wages growth, despite recently approved EBA wages rising a little.
- While we don't hold out much hope for a lift in wages growth this quarter, it's worth noting that there are positive signs for stronger Q3 wages growth.
