Takes the leading indicator to 95.40. A 0.05% rise is barely changed.

Comments from WPAC's chief economist Bill Eavans:

  • The Index growth rate remains in deep negative territory consistent with recession.
  • However, it appears to have bottomed out in April at -5.61% and, without the recent disaster in Victoria, it seemed certain that the June quarter would have marked the low point in the growth cycle.
  • Victoria represents around 25% of national output. We expect the hard lockdown following the renewed virus outbreak to see the Victorian economy contract by 9% in the September quarter. That will offset the ongoing recovery we expect to be unfolding in other states as they continue to reopen, albeit at varying speeds.
  • For Australia overall, we expect growth in the economy to be flat in the September quarter before lifting by 2.8% in the December quarter on the assumption that Victoria moves through Stage 4 to Stage 2 and the other states avoid 'second wave' outbreaks.

Sort of leaning optimistic, but not quite yet …