Coming up at 0030GMT, economic growth data from Australia for the July to September period
- expected +0.6% q/q, prior +0.9%
- expected +3.3% y/y, prior +3.4%
That is, a little slower than previous.
Via Westpac, an idea of what to watch for:
- Australia's output performance surprised to the high side over the past year, at a well above trend 3.4%, including a 4.1% annualised pace over the first half of 2018.
- For Q3, momentum eased back to around a trend pace, at a forecast 0.7%qtr - albeit with risks tilted to the downside
Note - Westpac have revised their expectation to 0.6% after the partials over the past few days, they also now note that risks are evenly balance
More:
- Key to some slowing between Q2 and Q3 is the cooling of the housing sector, both prices and activity, as well as an ongoing choppy profile for consumer spending.
And, this:
- The arithmetic of our Q3 GDP forecast is: domestic demand 0.5%; inventories -0.3ppts; and net exports +0.3ppts.
- government spending and net exports are key growth drivers in the quarter
- Government spending … has considerable further upside as governments continue to commit to additional investment projects, particular transport infrastructure.
- Key uncertainties: the consumer and the drought - with a lack of partials around consumer spending on services and on farm inventories. The drought in NSW and surrounding areas is likely to have its biggest impact in Q4 and Q1 - but there is a risk of an inventory drag in Q3.
