Bank of England monetary policy meeting - recap (negative rates on the way but not yet)

JPMorgan client note on the BoE Monetary policy Committee Thursday

(earlier posts here:

• Forexlive European FX News 17 Sep - Bank of England Bangs Pound lower

)

JPM (in brief summary - bolding is mine)

• BoE failed to hint at an imminent QE extension at today's September meeting, with no dissents and a positive spin on the data
• But a host of downside risks are weighing on the MPC's mind, and a QE extension is looking more likely than not this year
• The weeks following the October EU summit, the fallout from the furlough scheme and next Budget could all significantly change the MPC's assessment, but the picture may still not be clear at its early November meeting. Given the BoE's current purchases will not be completed until year end, this buys it some time before acting again
• We pencil in a £50bn QE extension for December, but with risks they go earlier and in larger size depending on political decisions.
• Meanwhile, the BoE intends to start a NIRP consultation in 4Q. We think this signals that negative rates are coming to the UK, but not for a while yet