Bavaria CPI

November: flat m/m, +2.5% y/y
October: +0.3% m/m, +2.7% y/y
—
Pan-German CPI

MNI median forecast: flat m/m, +2.4% y/y
MNI forecast range: -0.1% m/m to +0.1% m/m

October: flat m/m, +2.5% y/y
—

BERLIN (MNI) – Consumer prices in the German state of Bavaria were
overall unchanged in November, as costlier food offset cheaper leisure
activities and restaurant and hotel fees, the state statistics office
said Monday.

Energy price developments continued to underpin annual inflation,
as evidenced by the core rate, which excludes heating oil and motor
fuel, reaching +1.8%, down 0.7 percentage point from the overall rate.

On the month, however, energy effects were negligible, as the 4.4%
gain in heating oil prices was offset by the 0.2% fall in motor fuel
prices. As a result, the core CPI was unchanged on the month, in line
with the headline figure.

Downward pressure on monthly inflation came from a 0.8% decline for
leisure activities and a 1.0% fall for hotel and restaurant prices.

Food prices were up 0.5% on the month, fed largely by the 3.7% jump
in seasonal foodstuff prices, bringing the annual rise to +1.6%.

With motor fuel prices down on the month, transport prices dipped
0.2% between October and November, though were still 5.1% higher on the
year.

Inflation pressures in Germany are expected to ease over the coming
months on the back of a deteriorating domestic and global economic
outlook.

Analysts note that growth of input prices has already slowed over
recent months. Moreover, business expectations for selling prices have
been falling.

Finance Minister Wolfgang Schaeuble last week cautioned that
Germany’s growth outlook “is no longer as favorable as it appeared half
a year ago. That is the big worry.”

The Finance Ministry forecast last week that the economic upswing
will likely slow markedly in the fourth quarter. Due to moderating
global growth, inflation pressures will likely ease as well, it said.

The Bundesbank said last week that the economy is set to run into
difficult cyclical headwinds in the coming months, yet there are few
signs to suggest the economy is heading for a recession.

The central bank forecast a slowdown in economic growth for the
coming year to 0.5% to 1.0%, which it said would result in a shift from
external to domestic growth forces.

For detailed information see data table on MNI MainWire.

–Berlin bureau: +49-30-22 62 05 80; email: twidder@marketnews.com

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