There are two types of economic data — hard numbers and sentiment surveys.
Comments from Bank of England MPC member McCafferty were published today and although he didn’t touch on the current economic outlook, he made the case for oft-maligned sentiment surveys.
McCafferty noted, for example, that the official data in 2012 and 2013 showed a sharp fall in business investment, which sat oddly with improved business confidence. The survey data pointed to stable, rising investment. The official data were subsequently revised up to match the survey data.
The latest UK survey has been mixed. The Oct manufacturing PMI rose to 53.2 from 51.5 while the Services PMI slipped to 65.2 from 58.7.
