Cutting the number of trains does not appear to be a wise move
The pound has give up more than 160 pips of gains but is still trading in positive territory on the day at 1.1821 -- up 60 pips.
The Treasury is set to unveil a support package for the self-employed tomorrow. You absolutely can't fault new Chancellor Rishi Sunak for the measures so far. They've been timely and broad but the overall government strategy is a mess. London mayor Sadiq Khan continues to cut tube service.
"Growing numbers of TfL staff are off sick or self-isolating. We cannot run more services than we currently are.
"If you have to go to work, please don't travel at rush hour - go at different times to keep contact to a minimum."
There has to be a better way. Even with greater lockdown measures, there are many pictures surfacing of packed trains.
The trade right now is all about financial services and the rush from UK firms to get dollars. That's crushed sterling. At some point, it's going to shift to economics. The pandemic is going to touch every part of the world and some governments will handle it better than others. The different outcomes will be stark and that's going to be reflected in the currencies.
Some places simply have a geographic and economic disadvantage. London is a dense city that relies on public transportation. It's a service economy and a tourism and transport hub. On top of that, financial services are going to be hit hard.
Add it up and it's a perfect storm. Cable is already so beaten down so I don't like that trade but at some point GBP/JPY will crack -- provided that Tokyo isn't hit just as hard.
On the fliipside, Neil Ferguson says he believes the NHS will be able to handle all the patients without breaching ICU capacity.
