EY ITEM Club produces quarterly UK economic forecasts. Report via Reuters.

  • expects spending to rise by 1.6% y/y
  • Consumer spending benefited from robust employment growth and a strong pick-up in real earnings growth in the second half of 2018 and early 2019
  • outlook now weaker


  • suspected earnings growth peaked in early 2019
  • strength in the labour market would increasingly fray over the coming months: lacklustre domestic economy, prolonged Brexit uncertainties, an unsettled domestic political situation and a challenging global environment
  • forecast employment growth would slow to 1.0% in 2019 and 0.6% in 2020, from 1.2% in 2018


Ernst & Young accountants' ITEM Club

  • Running for 25 years
  • A non-governmental forecasting group