From a reporter at The Telegraph

  • Says that threshold for the confidence vote will be reached later today

Pretty much this is the growing consensus of what's going to take place next. However, I find it tough to envisage a scenario where May loses the vote because there just isn't any one else suited or willing enough to replace her at this point in time.

The vote is likely to send a more indirect message to May by saying that they will vote down her Brexit deal in a meaningful vote in parliament. But remember, she still can choose to either call their (possible) bluff on that and/or renegotiate with European officials in the coming week.