UK PM in recent comments before his cabinet meeting, now underway.
Following on from Ryan's comprehensive, in-the-moment, report last night the UK is now awash with media coverage as Cameron gathers his government.
I'm not so sure the deal- a legally binding and irreversible one according to the EU Council communique - makes the UK special per se and there are plenty of prominent dissenters to make this campaign a long and bitterly fought contest but Cameron will be pleased with what he's brought back however hollow in real terms given his opening position. EU leaders in the end took the easy way out and settled for a "better-the-devil-you-know" outcome but Cameron's deal was a diluted one.
The immediate matter for markets/traders now is not the end-result of a referendum widely touted to be 23 June as I've mentioned here a few times ( Cameron will hold a press conference and the announce the date today after his cabinet meeting) but as Ryan points out the uncertainty remains and focus will be on the countless number of polls leading into the event.
Whether you like it/agree with it or not this is a big event both for UK voters and GBP traders worldwide. A market does what a market is, and right now as much/more than ever the market is a herd of lemmings prepared to jump off a cliff in search of the next few pips. Some longer term traders will already be planning their strategy and will sit out the lead-in bun fight but for many it will be the fickle comment by comment/ poll by poll action and reaction that will be all consuming.
Yes I think we can expect some further GBP demand now we have something a little more concrete but I'm not ready to abandon my bearish/sell-rally tones anytime soon.
We need to see the small print of the deal and evaluate the pros and cons of the UK existing outside of the EU should that happen and I still say that's more than a figment of EU-sceptic imaginations.
There will be some heavy hitters campaigning to leave including close Cameron aide Michael Gove and, it is widely anticipated, the enigmatic Boris Johnson. Yes, homo sapien is conservative by nature as we saw in both the Scottish referendum and last year's UK general election but the issue of Europe is one that strikes a different chord and is non-political. Convincing arguments made to leave the EU will not fall on deaf ears. Cameron's decision/capitulation to allow his MPs a free vote and campaign on a personal view may yet come back to bite him up the backside.
Either way the gloves are off and the real battle is about to begin. Yes, be prepared to get bored by all the coverage but don't underestimate the impact it will bring or how close the contest may be. Opportunities both sides of the GBP price will be plentiful and don't forget that this EU/UK deal opens up a whole new debate on how much the EU/Eurozone can and will change in the future.
Thank- you Dave. Noooooooo, thank- yoooou Don
