The fiscal update from Canadian Liberals

The +$300B deficit talk stared with a Globe & Mail report late yesterday and it certainly hasn't hurt the loonie today. The December 2019 forecast was $28.1B.

More:

  • GDP forecast at -6.8% vs +1.6% in Dec
  • 2021 GDP forecast +5.5% vs +1.8% in Dec
  • Budget makes no mention of a return to a balanced budget
  • Sees 2020-21 federal debt to GDP at 49.1% vs 30.9% prior
  • Revenue forecast at $268.8B vs $352.3B in Dec
  • Budget forecast at a much higher degree of uncertainty than normal
  • Plans to issue $C106B in 10-30y bonds compared to $17B a year earlier
  • Total bond stock will rise 53% to C$915B

This is somewhere in the range of 18% of GDP, for the Federal government alone.

The Canadian dollar is at the highs of the day, up a full cent and testing the 200-dma.