Monthly Canadian GDP data
- Prior (October) was +0.3% (unrevised)
- -0.094% unrounded
- GDP y/y +1.7% vs +1.6% expected
- Gains in 13 of 20 sectors
- Wholesale trade -1.1% vs +1.0% in Oct
- Manufacturing -0.5% vs +0.7% in Oct with petroleum -2.2%
- Finance and insurance sector -0.7% vs +1.1% in Oct
- Construction activity down for sixth consecutive month at -0.3%
- Retail trade -0.3% with 5 of 12 subsectors down led by motor vehicles
The manufacturing slump was in large part because of petroleum on refinery maintenance and vehicles on retooling so that should unwind in December.
The worries here are construction and retail. There is secular growth in Canadian retail due to the adoption of Black Friday and StatsCan noted that electronics and general merchandise sales were strong but that will unwind in December. Construction, meanwhile, is clearly in a rut.
Overall, the market was braced for a worse number here (and so was I) but a strong gain in mining excluding oil & gas kept the sector almost flat while the 'other' industries were given a big boost in accommodation and utilities.
Separately:
- Industrial product price -0.7% vs +0.1% exp
- Prior -0.8%
- Raw materials price index +3.8% m/m
- Prior raw materials price index -11.8% m/m
That's a surprising drop in Canada's PPI.
