Canada employment report for July of 2018
Due at 1230GMT on Friday 10 August 2018
Change in Employment
- expected +17K, prior +31.8K
And Unemployment rate
- expected 5.9%, prior 6.0%
We'll also get an indication for hourly earnings change in the data
Earlier post:
What to watch via …
TD
- We look for the economy to add 20k jobs in July on a rebound in private sector employment. Full time employment should lead job growth while a moderation in labour force growth will allow the unemployment rate to edge lower to 5.9%.
- Wage growth is likely to edge push higher to 3.6% y/y.
BMO
Employment is expected to rise a modest 5,000 in July, consistent with historical weakness in the month.
- July has tended to see a chunky drop in education, which is later revised away, but that hasn't stopped the initial print from being soft.
- Indeed, July employment has come in below expectations in 15 of the past 18 years. That's by far the worst for any month.
- Indeed, our call is driven entirely by this seeming seasonality issue and does NOT reflect underlying economic fundamentals.
Moreover, given that job growth was actually negative through the first six months of 2018, there's likely room for positive surprises in the back half of the year.
- Assuming July is a dud as usual, don't be shocked if the rest of the year is abnormally strong.
Moving back to July, look for goods-producing sectors to be more subdued after a huge June. And, services are expected to recover after June's pullback.
- Despite our call for a tiny headline gain, the jobless rate looks to hold steady and a decline wouldn't be shocking after June's two-notch increase.
- The labour force saw its biggest gain in over six years last month, which could mean some softer months ahead.
- Wage growth looks to hold steady at 3.6%, though there's some upside risk here as the labour market continues to tighten.
