Commonwealth Bank of Australia now sees the RBA moving in February 2019 instead

They had previously forecast the RBA to move in November 2018. Here are some comments by CBA chief economist, Michael Blythe:

  • The macro backdrop and RBA commentary indicate that the next move in interest rates is up
  • But new uncertainties from falling dwelling prices, funding cost pressures and tightening lending standards are set to lengthen the RBA's patience
  • We have delayed the timing of the first RBA rate rise from November 2018 to February 2019 as a result
  • The expansion of household debt has increased the interest rate sensitivity of the Australian economy
  • A 3.5% cash rate would be dangerously close to levels that could trigger some genuine household financial stress
  • While the start date may be a bit later, we still put the peak cash rate at 2.5% and don't expect to get there until 2020

That leaves NAB as the only one of Australia's "big four" to still be holding on to their forecast that the RBA is moving this year. I wonder when will it be that they will revise their call.