US CDC sounds the alarm
The US Centers for Disease Control and Prevention has released a statement saying to avoid all non-essential travel to China.
The market is more sanguine today but a few things have me worried. One is that cases have appeared in west Africa and Sri Lanka. A patient in India is also said to have died. Those are areas that have limited infrastructure to stop an epidemic.
The market is focused on the epidemic spreading to the developed world via China but if it occurs in 3-4 other places, that may be the way in. Especially if it works its way in.
Second is this report from China saying a patient "came to Hangzhou from Wuhan to attend conference. When arrived, he did not have any symptoms. A few colleagues he contacted got infected. After returning to Wuhan he did not get disease for 2 days."
That's a clear sign of asymptomatic transmission., which would be nearly impossible to contain.
There are some Chinese experts who are saying the virus will peak in a week or 10 days so there are two sides to the argument, but I think risks are still deeply tilted towards the negative in the market.
