The US dollar was the worst performer last week but it’s off to a better start today, clawing back some of the losses against the commodity bloc.

Quarter end is the big story but economic data could also jar markets. A somber mood has set over the US economy since Q1 GDP and now analysts are losing faith. UBS lowered its 2014 full-year forecast to 1.7% from 2.5% today.

The Chicago PMI is out at 9:45 am (1345 GMT) but subscribers get it a couple minutes early and last month it leaked even before that so tread carefully. Fifteen minutes later the pending home sales report is out but it’s a low tier indicator.