Its thought that Chinese foreign reserves data for September will be announced some time today, likely into the London morning.

No guarantees it'll be today, but that's what is expected, despite the holiday in China

  • Consensus expectations are for 3.5bn USD, prior was 3.557bn USD

RBC remarks that outflows are likely to continue, citing:

  • Interest rate differentials against the US declined by 200-250bp since January 2014. Even without an imminent Federal Reserve rate 'lift-off' flows will likely pull USD/CNY higher
  • "There is about $400-500bn of pipeline demand in short-term international claims just to reverse some of the flows observed since 2010 ... in August there were about $100bn of outflows"
  • As global FX reserves accumulation continues to reverse, the same things FX reserve managers aimed to buy in the past ten years or so will also turn around as well
  • For the yuan, RBS say its overvalued by 15 to 18% ... "because the CNY has appreciated 16% and 14% against the EUR and the JPY since the summer of 2014"

ING comments:

  • Consensus forecast for foreign reserves, which implies reduced hot money outflows, would be positive for financial markets
  • The $93.9bn fall in reserves in August was the biggest monthly fall on record
  • The PBOC attributed the large fall in reserves in August to exchange market intervention, valuation changes and entrusted FX loans through banks
  • The August reserve decline was a record and raised hard-landing worries, triggering financial market contagion
  • The modestly better PMIs released last week lessened worries; the China factor hasn't interrupted the risk-on re-pricing in financial markets triggered by the September US jobs report. We think the consensus forecast for foreign reserves, which implies reduced hot money outflows, would be similarly positive.

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(Boldings above are mine)