China trade balance - while awaiting bank analysts to weigh in, this rapid response via Bloomberg analysts:
Likely the numbers reflect distortions around Chinese New Year
Import growth surged
- very likely boosted by holiday effects - with the lunar new year falling partly in January last year and entirely in February this year
- Continued gains in oil prices, which rose 21% in the last year, also contributed
Exports
- robust pace of expansion and consistent with early signals from global PMIs and the flash reading for South Korea's overseas sales
- As with imports though, exports are likely being moved by holiday effects, and we'll have to wait for February and March data to see a trend
- Bloomberg Economics is expecting mid-single digit export growth for the year.