The inflation data is due at 0830GMT.
What to expect, this via SG:
- Within the core, we expect services inflation to dip slightly after being pushed up in April by timing effects on air fares related to the way the ONS captures air fares in holiday periods. Those effects should start to be reversed in May.
- Goods inflation is on a downward trend as the impact of the 2016 fall in sterling finally peters out, but it dropped a bit too rapidly in April so should tick up temporarily. It should hit zero within the next month or two, though.
- The net result should be that core inflation remains at 1.8% yoy.
- In non-core, fuel inflation should weaken a tad, as petrol prices rose by 3% after 3.7% mom a year earlier, and food price inflation should be little changed.
- So, with both core and non-core inflation components being stable, overall CPI inflation should hold at 2.1% yoy.
