December non-farm payrolls highlights
Prior was 155K
Strongest since Feb 2018
- Private payrolls 301K versus 161K last month and 185K expected
- Unemployment rate 3.9% vs 3.7% expected
- Prior unemployment rate 3.7%
- Participation rate 63.1% versus 62.9% expected -- highest since 2014
- Two month net revision +58K
- average hourly earnings m/m +0.4% versus +0.3% expected
- average hourly earnings y/y +3.2% versus 3.0% expected
- Average weekly hours 34.5 versus 34.5 expected
- U6 underemployment rate 7.6% versus 7.6% prior
This is a very strong jobs report and includes strong revisions. It mirrors the jump in ADP employment. Before the report I wrote about the possibility of more retirees coming back into the labor market and picking up temporary jobs over the holidays. I'll have to dig deeper but the higher participation rate points to something like that.
The three-month annualized rise in wages is 3.3% which is a nice clip and something that the Fed is going to be thinking about.
Finally, oftentimes revisions are seen as a better indication than the headline because they show residual weakness/strength. In this case, the 58K additional jobs is a positive.
