Deutsche Bank’s 2014 USD/JPY forecasts:

  • 106 in Q1,
  • 109 in Q2,
  • 112 in Q3 and
  • 115 in Q4


  • relative BoJ balance sheet expansion, a weak current account, big outbound FDI and an unwind of massive post-GFC capital inflows

“We conclude we are only about half way through a move that will eventual push up to and probably through 120. The latter would be characterized as overshoot, but that after all has been a basic historical trait of the USD/JPY exchange rate… as conviction in Abenomics deepens and local households, domestic institutions and foreign real money investors embark on a structural shift in portfolio allocations. It will benefit both local equities and the USD/JPY trade”


Earlier: JP Morgan USD/JPY forecasts for 2014