It's PMI day in Europe once again

Comic 18-04

Good day, everyone! Hope you're all doing well as we prepare for the session ahead. It's been a bit of a quiet one to start the day but we did see the aussie get a bit of a jolt higher after the release of the jobs report earlier.

The focus on the session ahead will be on the euro as we'll get April PMI survey data so let's see what else is on the data docket over the next few hours.

0600 GMT - Switzerland March trade balance data

Prior release can be found here. General indication of trade conditions in the Swiss economy. A minor data point.

0600 GMT - Germany March PPI figures

Prior release can be found here. A lagging indicator of inflationary pressures in the German economy. Low-tier data.

0715 GMT - France April flash manufacturing, services, composite PMI

0730 GMT - Germany April flash manufacturing, services, composite PMI

0800 GMT - Eurozone April flash manufacturing, services, composite PMI

The highlight of the European session in terms of data releases. Markets have already been spooked by last month's dismal Germany manufacturing print so risks are clearly tilted to the downside here. Any major beat will help the euro squeeze higher but it's tough to imagine a major break unless EUR/USD clears 1.1325-30 levels. Meanwhile, any major disappointment will reinvigorate short positions again as we saw last month. That said, estimates are for the prints to come in close to where they were last month but the same could be said in anticipation for last month's release as well - so there you go.

0800 GMT - Italy February industrial sales, orders data

Prior release can be found here. A general indication of factory activity in the Italian economy. A lagging data point as a lot of the focus will be on PMI readings instead.

0830 GMT - UK March retail sales data

Prior report can be found here. Consumption has been bouncing back a little in the UK to start the year and that is one positive area that the economy can point towards despite all the worries surrounding Brexit. That said, the data here will do little to convince of any major directional breakout in the pound unless it is supported by Brexit headlines. Expect any reaction to the release here to be short-term i.e. intra-day at most.

The other thing to note today is that we may get some position squaring a day early as most markets will be observing a four-day weekend (Good Friday tomorrow and Easter on Monday). So, just be wary of that if you're planning trades over the next few days as thinner liquidity conditions will prevail until next Tuesday.

I wish you all the best of days to come and good luck with your trading!