FRANKFURT (MNI) – Industrial production in the Eurozone is
projected to recover in July, as the vast majority of analysts expect a
monthly upturn of at least 0.7%, a Market News International poll shows.
After the 0.7% dip in June, the median forecast is for a 1.5% rise
in July, which would lift output by 4.5% on the year to the highest
level since October 2008.
Based on countries that have already published industrial
production results for July, output for the Eurozone as a whole could
surprise to the upside.
Six countries with a combined weight of nearly 60% of the total
production index reported monthly gains above the median forecast:
Germany (+4.0%), France (+1.6%), the Netherlands (+3.5%), Greece
(+3.9%), Luxembourg (+3.1%) and Estonia (+4.7%).
Downside risks come from Italy (-0.7%) and Spain (-0.6%). Sharper
declines were sustained in Slovakia (-3.4%), Portugal (-3.0%) and
Slovenia (-2.2%). Results for a total of eight countries with a combined
weight of 36% were below the median forecast.
Excluding Cyprus, Belgium and Austria — three countries for which
current data are rarely if ever available – national results point to a
unadjusted monthly gain of 1.79%. The three missing countries account
for just over 4.7% of the overall production index.
Of the 15 forecasts collected, six foresee output rising by at
least 1.7% on the month, with the most optimistic at +2.5% and the most
pessimistic at -0.5%.
Preliminary Eurozone estimates are schedule to be published
Wednesday at 9:00 GMT.
— Frankfurt bureau: +49 69 720 142; email: frankfurt@marketnews.com —
[TOPICS: M$XDS$,M$X$$$]
