SNB phones are ringing
EUR/CHF is below 1.1000 for the first time in two years.
The questions is: what can the Swiss national bank tolerate? It looked like a bid was holding the pair above 1.10 yesterday but that was probably an option defense or technical support.
It's given way in the past two hours and it's been entirely orderly so it's safe to say this isn't the line in the sand that Jordan wants to draw.
I don't see a huge risk in intervention. I don't get the sense that specs are piling into shorts and the move has been relatively orderly. There's also the fundamentals underpinning of the ECB looking to cut rates and buy more bonds, so there's some justification.
If you ignore the risk intervention, or believe it's not coming, then the technical picture is undoubtedly negative, with no real support now until the 2016/2017 lows.
