EUR/CHF is relatively steady. The cross sits at 1.1515 pretty much where we closed out Tuesday in North America. Inbetween we’ve been down to 1.5065 area, but the stay there was short indeed.
While 1.5180/00 was regarded by some as the line in the sand where the SNB would re-intervene, a much more popular touted level has been 1.5000. Any approach of that level, if it indeed comes, is going to be clenched butt-cheek time for the swissy bulls, for sure.
I don’t know why, but i’ve got a feeling the next decent move is going to be higher. I certainly feel we’re likely to see an improvement in general sentiment post G20, with maybe a nice rally in equities. This would have the effect of eroding swissy’s safe haven premium, lending the cross decent support.
The other big event tomorrow is the ECB meet. I don’t think a rate cut in line with expectations (50 bps) is going to do much to the EUR/CHF cross. I’m not sure even a 75 bps cut would pressure it too much either given wariness of SNB.
The bigger unknown would be a reaction to ECB quantitative ease, but surely that’s at least partly discounted after all the speculation. And at the end of the day they might well leave it on the backburner, for now.
