The EURUSD is starting the NY session at the highest level since June 21 as the market awaits the US Employment report. Below are the estimates vs last months numbers:
Unemployment rate: 8.3% Est. vs 8.3% last
NFP: 130K Est vs 163K
Manufacturing: 10K est vs 25K
Underemployment Rate: No est, Last 15%
Avg Hourly Earnings: +0.2% est vs +0.1% last
The price has reached and passed my next bullish target at the 1.2692 level after holding the 100 day MA yesterday and basing off that level (see blue line in the chart above). This level (1.2692) is the first support on the downside.
The market is likely looking for some news to extend the gains. The next major targets on the topside from the daily chart come in at:
- The June high at the 1.2746 level.
- The 50% of the move down from the 2012 high comes in at 1.2763 and topside channel trend line comes in at 1.2769. This area should slow a rally at least on the first test.
- A move above that looks for the 200 day MA at 1.2838.
On the downside, (a stronger number should lead to a fall on expectation for no stinkin QE),
- A move back below the end of June high at 1.26917, has the
- Underside of the broken trend line on the hourly chart at the 1.2674.
- A move below this level would look toward the 1.2633 which is the 38.2% of the move higher this week. This is also the high from August 31. So expect some pause at this level.
- Below that and the 1.2608 where the 50% of the weeks range and
- The 1.2595 level where the 100 hour MA is found would be the next steps to the downside.
Event risk is increased with the release. With it, liquidity and market risk make this release always one of the riskiest times of the calendar month. Traders who are long from below are in charge. Those who are short will need to take back control by getting below the aforementioned support levels. The burden is on the shorts to send the market lower.
