If we get the usual Friday risk-aversion plays in Asia, then we may see EUR/USD fall some more in line with the EUR/CHF and EUR/JPY crosses. The USD has also been making a fightback in recent days and the short-term downtrend in EUR/USD is still relevant.
The medium-term outlook for the EUR/USD still looks reasonably positive so buying dips looks like a technically sound strategy. There is also the spectre of some big flows heading EUR’s way out of the Middle East. Bulls should be cautious though as this short-term downmove could fall to 1.3660 without endangering the uptrend.
With conflicting factors in play, range trading is favoured and if the market gets volatile we may well see a wide 1.3670/1.3870ish trading range over all three sessions today.
