WASHINGTON (MNI) – The following is the text the Kansas City
section of the Federal Reserve’s Beige Book report on current financial
conditions released Wednesday:
TENTH DISTRICT – KANSAS CITY
Growth in the Tenth District economy edged higher in October and
early November but remained moderate overall. Consumer spending improved
further, and manufacturing activity rose modestly. High-tech firms
reported generally strong growth, and the energy industry continued to
expand at a robust pace. Bankers reported mostly steady loan demand,
better loan quality, and rising deposits. Transportation firms reported
stable activity, while agricultural activity was mixed due to varying
rainfall and drought conditions across the District. Residential and
commercial real estate activity remained sluggish, though some
improvements were noted. Prices were generally flat, and wage pressures
were limited outside of several skilled labor positions.
Consumer Spending. Consumer spending strengthened, and expectations
improved for the months ahead. Retail sales continued to grow solidly,
and the majority of contacts expected continued sales growth in coming
months. Sales of apparel and seasonal outerwear were noted as
particularly strong, while a few contacts characterized sales of
high-end appliances and jewelry items as weak. Store inventories leveled
out somewhat but were above year-ago levels in most establishments. Auto
sales remained solid, with several dealers reporting high demand for
mid-size SUVs and fuel efficient vehicles. Expectations for future auto
sales were mostly positive, and auto inventories increased slightly over
the previous survey. Restaurant sales improved, with further growth
expected in coming months. Tourist activity was largely flat, but some
contacts were cautiously optimistic about the upcoming winter season.
Manufacturing and Other Business Activity. District manufacturing
activity edged higher from the previous survey, and expectations
rebounded after easing somewhat the past few months. Factory orders
slowed slightly, but shipments increased and hiring plans remained
solid. Plant managers indicated moderate growth in capital spending
plans. Transportation firms noted generally stable conditions, but
expectations for future activity increased over the previous survey and
capital spending plans were positive. The majority of high-tech services
firms reported strong growth in sales and expected this trend to
continue. Future capital expenditure plans at high-tech firms remained
solid.
Real Estate and Construction. Residential and commercial real
estate activity remained generally sluggish in October and early
November. Housing starts dropped from the previous survey, with
construction of higher-priced homes particularly weak. Expectations for
future homebuilding remained slow, and materials were generally
available. Sales at residential construction supply firms improved
somewhat, driven in part by an increase in remodeling as more consumers
updated existing homes. Home sales picked up slightly but remained weak
overall. Expectations for future home sales were more positive than in
previous months, and home inventories drifted lower as home prices
continued to ease in most areas. Mortgage lending activity was positive
and remained above year-ago levels, though some contacts reported
continued buyer financing difficulties. Commercial real estate activity
edged higher from the previous survey, but remained sluggish overall
with little further improvement expected. Vacancy rates dropped
slightly, though they were expected to rise somewhat in future months.
Office prices and rents increased but remained below year-ago levels,
and expectations were flat. One contact in Joplin, Missouri noted
considerable building activity as a result of the devastating tornado in
that area last spring.
Banking. Most bankers reported steady or stronger loan demand,
stable or improving loan quality, and increased deposits compared with
the previous survey. Overall loan demand increased marginally as demand
for commercial and residential real estate loans strengthened, demand
for consumer installment loans declined, and demand for commercial and
industrial loans weakened slightly. Credit standards remained largely
unchanged in all major loan categories, and deposits increased for the
seventh straight survey. Bankers generally reported loan quality as
steady or improving compared to a year ago, with even more improvement
expected for the next six months.
Energy. Energy activity continued to expand strongly in October and
early November. Nearly all contacts reported an increase in drilling
activity and were optimistic about the months ahead. Crude oil prices
remained favorable for drilling, and one contact noted that overall
drilling activity was approaching levels reached before the price
collapse in 2008. However, contacts reported that shortages of equipment
and labor continued to constrain the rate of increase in
exploration to some degree, and one producer said the delay in the
Keystone Pipeline project was hindering future growth.
Agriculture. Agricultural activity varied across the District in
October and early November. Northern portions of the District, which
received ample summer precipitation, reported above average corn and
soybean yields at harvest and the majority of Nebraska’s wheat crop
emerged in good condition. In contrast, drought conditions severely cut
crop production in the District’s southern regions, with Kansas and
Oklahoma winter wheat crops in fair or poor condition. Robust export
demand continued to boost crop and livestock prices. Farm income rose in
areas with bumper harvests, while crop insurance was expected to
mitigate losses in cases of poor yields or crop failure. Strong farm
income boosted farm loan repayment rates and trimmed demand for
operating loans. With rising farm income and strong demand from both
farmers and non-farm investors, District farmland values posted another
record high, with the strongest gains in the northern Plains.
Wages and Prices. Price levels were generally stable, and wage
pressures remained mostly contained, outside of a few skilled positions.
Manufacturing price pressures moderated somewhat, especially for raw
materials, and fewer firms planned to raise selling prices. Prices for
construction materials stabilized, and retail prices were also flat as
fewer firms expected increases. However, transportation firms reported
continued high input prices, and restaurants expected higher menu prices
due to rising food costs. Wage pressures were still contained in most
industries. However, some firms reported difficulties finding skilled
workers and were forced to raise wages, particularly in energy and
information technology fields. Hiring plans were generally solid for
most firms, particularly those in the energy, information technology,
and manufacturing sectors.
** Market News International Washington Bureau: 202-371-2121 **
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