WASHINGTON (MNI) – The following is the latest Beige Book survey of
economic conditions in the Federal Reserve’s Ninth District, published
Wednesday:
The Ninth District economy grew at a solid pace since the last
report. Strength was noted in consumer spending, professional services,
construction, manufacturing, energy and mining, and agriculture.
Residential real estate had an unexpectedly large increase in sales
activity. Warm weather slowed winter tourism activity. Hiring activity
outpaced layoffs since the last report. Wage increases were moderate,
and price increases were generally subdued.
Consumer Spending and Tourism
Consumer spending continued to expand moderately. Same-store sales
at a Minnesota-based retailer increased 7 percent in February compared
with a year ago. February sales at a Montana mall were up about 10
percent over last year; remodeling activity was strong for new stores
and expansions. March sales were up over 5 percent compared with a year
earlier at a North Dakota mall. However, a Minnesota-based hair salon
plans to close some of its stores. A Minnesota auto dealer reported that
mild weather depressed service and vehicle sales during January and
February, but auto sales bounced back in March. In addition, higher
gasoline prices don’t seem to be influencing buying decisions away from
SUVs and light trucks.
Lack of snow and warm temperatures slowed winter tourism in a
number of areas; however, late-season snow perked up activity in some
places. Enough snow fell in northwestern Wisconsin during February to
hold the annual American Birkebeiner cross-country ski race, bringing
thousands of visitors to the area. Western South Dakota received
late-season snow, which enabled a strong finish for snowmobiling and
downhill skiing. A ski resort in Montana reported that visits and
revenue were up from a year ago.
Construction and Real Estate
The continued warm weather aided construction activity. The value
of commercial building permits in the Sioux Falls, S.D., area was up in
February from a year earlier. The value and number of new commercial
permits increased in Fargo, N.D., during the first two months of 2012
compared with the same period in 2011. Residential construction
increased from a year ago. The value of residential building permits
increased significantly in the Sioux Falls area in February. The number
of single-family building permits increased in Minnesota in January
2012, compared with January 2011. Several new multifamily projects were
planned for the Minneapolis area.
Commercial real estate market activity increased. A commercial
broker in Minneapolis noted more leasing activity, especially for class
A space. Residential real estate had an unexpectedly large increase in
sales activity. Home sales in February were up 23 percent from the same
period a year ago in the Minneapolis-St. Paul area, and the inventory of
homes for sale was down 27 percent. However, median sales prices dropped
slightly. In the Sioux Falls area, February home sales were up 5 percent
and inventory was down 7 percent relative to a year ago. A broker noted
that lower-priced homes saw an investor “feeding frenzy,” with
properties selling in a few days with multiple offers.
Services
Activity at professional business services firms increased slightly
since the last report. An accountant noted that this tax season was
busier and that many firms saw an increase in earnings in 2011 compared
with 2010. A bank director from Montana noted that law firms were
experiencing mixed activity and that firms specializing in
petro-chemical and environmental engineering were seeing increased
activity, while mechanical and structural engineering activity was flat
to down.
Manufacturing
Manufacturing activity expanded. A survey of purchasing managers by
Creighton University (Omaha, Neb.) found that manufacturing activity in
Minnesota and the Dakotas increased in March. A manufacturer based in
northwestern Wisconsin announced plans to build a production plant. A
mill in Minnesota will begin a $170 million conversion from producing
pulp for paper mills to producing cellulose for textiles. A brewery in
Minnesota is expanding its operations. In contrast, a manufacturer of
recreational vehicles in South Dakota has halted production and may not
reopen.
Energy and Mining
Activity in the energy and mining sectors continued at strong
levels. Oil and gas exploration activity in North Dakota increased since
the last report, but was flat in Montana. A Federal Circuit Court judge
upheld a permit for construction of a $10 billion oil refinery in
southeastern South Dakota, which would be the first new refinery in the
United States since 1976. A separate $500 million diesel refinery was in
early planning stages in western North Dakota. Two District ethanol
plants are planning conversions to produce a different biofuel. Ninth
District iron ore mines continued to operate at near capacity. A mining
firm is developing plans in northern Minnesota for a large underground
mine to tap a recently discovered copper deposit. Meanwhile, a tribe in
western Montana moved to block a copper and silver mine on a wilderness
site.
Agriculture
Agricultural conditions remained strong. Cattle ranchers benefited
from both high beef prices and strong export demand as well as ideal
weather for the calving season. Drought conditions remained in
Minnesota, the Dakotas and western Wisconsin, but were abated somewhat
by recent rain and snowfall. Drier conditions may actually lead to
increased corn plantings in the eastern Dakotas by making long-flooded
fields available. Unseasonably warm weather has led to reports of early
spring wheat plantings in some areas. Prices received by farmers for
wheat, corn, dry beans, cattle, hogs, eggs and poultry increased in
March from the previous month, while dairy prices fell for the month and
the year.
Employment, Wages and Prices
Hiring activity outpaced layoffs since the last report. The new
production plant in northwestern Wisconsin is expected to hire 300
workers. In Montana, a company that services student loans could hire
about 100 more people this summer. A new wheat straw pulping and molding
factory in North Dakota will create 100 jobs. A major Minnesota-based
employer noted that fewer employees accepted a recent early retirement
offer than expected. In contrast, a telecommunications firm in Minnesota
will eliminate 85 positions as part of a restructuring plan, and a
printer laid-off almost 50 workers.
Wage increases were moderate. In a first quarter business survey by
St. Cloud State University (Minnesota), 65 percent of respondents left
wages unchanged in the past three months. However, in western North
Dakota and eastern Montana, strong oil-drilling and production activity
continued to bid up pay. In contrast, a Minnesota business that makes
in-store advertising for retailers was cutting compensation for
salespeople and some managers while laying off some staff.
Price increases were generally subdued; however, some exceptions
were noted. More than two-thirds of respondents to the St. Cloud survey
reported that prices at their companies did not change over the past
three months. Late March Minnesota gasoline prices were up about 25
cents per gallon from mid-February and 20 cents per gallon from a year
ago. Airlines raised airfares during the past couple of months in
response to higher fuel costs. A Minnesota-based food company noted that
input cost increases were above 10 percent. Amid higher oil prices, low
natural gas prices have spurred energy and transportation companies to
pursue conversion projects.
** MNI Washington Bureau: 202-371-2121 **
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