Is the Fed to cut in July?
The US May non-farm payrolls figure disappointed on Friday with a headline figure of +75k jobs vs 175k expected. The prior +263k reading was revised down as well to +224k. The avg hourly earnings fell to +0.2%m/m vs +0.3%m/m expected and +3.1% y/y vs +3.2% y/y. Adam pointed out on Friday that this is the weakest four month period of jobs data since 2012. It is no surprise to us that the soft earnings and falling jobs is going to be a concern for the Fed. However, at the start of this week the probability of a rate hike for July was being priced at a 80.4% probability. Breaking that down that is a 66.6% chance of a 25bps point fo July and a 13.8% chance of a 50bps cut.
Pushing the date out further to September sees a 93.7% chance of a rate cut in September and just under 50% chance of a 50bps rate cut at that. So, the question is, 'Is a rate cut now a foregone conclusion for the Federal Reserve at their July meeting?' "If not then, then when?' A penny for your thoughts please...
