Kashkari weighs in on the hot topic

The US 2-10 yield spread is just 25 basis points today and an inversion is almost inevitable given the projected path of Fed rates.

Minneapolis Fed President Kashkari just released an essay on the yield curve. Read it here.

He notes that every time the yield curve has inverted in the past half-century, it's been followed by a recession.

He argues that this time isn't different and deconstructs the arguments that the term premium is low so not to worry.

"Declarations that 'this time is different' should be a warning that history might be about to repeat itself," he writes.

None of this is a surprise from Kashkari, he's the arch-dove at the Fed.