Between 100 and 200 hour MAs
The EURUSD moved to the highest level of the day as North American traders entered for the day, but has quickly backed off.. In the slow but steady climb into the NY open, the price extended back above the 1.0961 – 1.09678 area where there has been a number of swing highs and lows going back to July 21 (see chart below). . The price also moved back above the 100 hour moving average (currently at 1.0971 – see blue line in the chart below). The price has since retreated back below this MA line to a low of 1.0966. The 1.0961-68 area - which houses a number of swing lows and highs - held that decline. The bulls are trying to keep the price supported.
On the topside. The next target becomes the 200 hour moving average (that's green line in the chart above). The 200 hour moving average, comes in at the 1.09972 level (let's call it 1.1000). The 38.2% of the move down from Friday's Employment Cost index spike high comes in at 1.10007. Above that the 1.1013-22 area (other swing highs and lows and the 50%) will be eyed.
As is becoming customary, the range for the EURUSD (and most other currency pairs with the exception of the AUDUSD), is LOW. The EURUSD has a 56 pip trading range. That is a pip higher than yesterday's 55 pips. Back to back low ranges (56 pips would be the 5th lowest range for the year) would not be likely, so there will be an extension. The average trading range is 116 pips for the last 22 trading days (about a month worth of trading). The closest path would be to track higher of course as the price is trading nearer the highs. So much will depend on if the aforementioned support levels hold on any corrections
There is no US data out at 8:30 AM. The ISM NY index is scheduled for release at 9:45 AM ET (last 63.1) and factory orders follow at 10 AM ET (1.8% vs. -1.0%, Durable Goods which is a piece of Factory Orders, came in at 3.4% already. There can be a revision to that figure in the Factory Orders.
