Forex headlines for the European morning session 30 Nov 2016

OPEC:

  • OPEC close to agreeing 1.4mbpd cut
  • OPEC is now focusing on a 1.4mbpd cut vs 1.2m expected prior #oott
  • Russia is ready to cut output says Iran's energy minister
  • Iran will not freeze oil output but says there is another arrangement
  • Saudi's accepts that Iran can pump 3.9mbpd - Livesquawk
  • Russia pushes back against proposed cut #oott
  • Can't get enough oil news? Watch the OPEC meeting live here
  • OPEC latest: Saudi's don't know if they're optimistic, Iraq agrees a cut

Other news:

  • BOE Financial Stability Report: Outlook for UK financial stability "remains challenging"
  • BOE's Carney says most significant risks to UK financial system are global
  • More from Carney: UK is effectively the EU's investment banker
  • ECB's Draghi says price stability remains the objective
  • Italy's Renzi says banking problems will be addressed after Sunday's referendum
  • SNB in the frame again as EURCHF rallies to 1.0800
  • More FX option expiries of note for the rest of the week
  • Option expiries for the 10 am NY cut today 30 Nov
  • Nikkei 225 closes up +0.01% at 18,308.48

Data:

  • November 2016 Eurozone CPI flash 0.6% vs 0.6% exp y/y
  • German unemployment change SA Nov -5k as expected
  • France CPI Nov flash mm 0.0% vs -0.1% exp
  • Germany retail sales Oct mm +2.4% vs 1.0% exp
  • November 2016 Italian HICP flash 0.1% vs 0.1% exp y/y
  • October 2016 Italian PPI -0.1% vs 0.0% prior m/m
  • Spain current account balance Sept USD +1.5bln vs +2.9bln prev
  • Spain retail sales Oct yy +0.6% vs +3.5% exp
  • Switzerland KOF leading indicator Nov 102.2 vs 104.00 exp
  • Japan housing starts Oct yy 13.7% vs 11.0% exp

Wow, where to start. It's certainly been lively as we expected with OPEC and month-end flows combining to produce a real roller-coaster ride.

It was an understandably cautious start with many pairs awaiting further impetus and as the OPEC news started coming through we saw USDJPY lead the way with yen selling across the board. From finding a base around 112.70 we've since been up to 113.50 with GBPJPY up to 141.54 and EURJPY to 120.75 amongst other enjoying the ride higher.

Brent and WTI have posted large gains as the output deal becomes more of a reality with moves from $47.65 to $51.38 and $45.52 to $49.12 respectively. European equities started out on the wobble but they all made gains to a lesser/greater degree.

GBPUSD was enjoying support from GBPJPY and had climbed back up through 1.2500 before running into sellers again and retreating to 1.2485. But then came another wave of EURGP month-end buying with the BUBA in the frame and a move from 0.8520 to 0.8565 then 0.8578 saw cable plummet to 1.2419

With all this going on we had seen the euro get another helping hand with the SNB given the credit for a rapid move up in USDCHF from 1.0130-1.0159 and EURCHF 1.0770-1.0803. Both ran into sellers again but the risk-on sentiment has seen the franc naturally under pressure leaving the SNB no doubt breathing more easily as we head into Sunday Italian referendum euro-risk event.

USDCAD ran into offers/res again into 1.3460 and the oil price surge/yen supply has seen further falls to 1.3360 as I type while AUDUSD and NZDUSD have both fallen on the general USD demand but supported by AUDJPY and NZDJPY demand.

Expect the fun and games to continue with data and month-end risk extending for the rest of the day. Keep an eye on the clock with the 16.00 GMT London fix expected to produce the usua addititional corp interest.