Forex headlines for Sept 12, 2014:
- US advance retail sales 0.6% vs 0.6% expected
- Prior reading revised to +0.3% from 0.0%
- September 2014 Michigan consumer sentiment flash 84.6 vs 83.3 exp
- Canadian Teranet house price index +0.8% m/m vs +1.1% prior
- ECB’s Coene says falling currency is rather helpful
- Draghi – We think the eurozone recovery will continue at a modest pace
- Greece upgraded to “B” from “B-” – outlook stable by S&P
- August 2014 US import prices -0.9% vs -1.0% exp m/m
- US July business inventories +0.4% vs +0.4% expected
- “Considerable time” will stay in the Fed statement — think tank
- ICM Guardian poll shows 51% for “No” vote to 49% for “Yes” vote
- Sanctions on Russia seek to scuttle peace process says Putin
- Russian minister says will retaliate on Nov 1 against sanctions if it has to
- JPMorgan now sees Fed hiking 25 basis points in June and dropping “considerable time” next week
- CFTC Commitments of Traders
- AUD/USD was the best trade this week
- S&P 500 down 12 points to 1985
- Gold down $11 to $1230
- WTI crude down 60-cents to $92.23
- EUR leads, AUD lags
It was a good day for range traders but whippy day for everyone else. Flow-driven trade dominated and there were few trends to follow aside from USD/CAD strength.
For example, USD/JPY traded in a rough range from 107.10 to 107.35 and touched each side 3-4 times over the course of a few hours of trading. The top was the European high of 107.40 and it never gave way. To me it looked like an old-fashioned battle between profit takers in USD longs and dip buyers. Overall, the appetite for USD buying was impressive.
EUR/USD staged a short covering rally but it was tough to get on board and stay there. The early morning move was a quick rally above yesterday’s fork top of 1.2952 but in minutes it was smashed down to a session low at 1.2909 but from there it staged a methodical rally all the way to 1.2979 before a late skid back down to 1.2943.
The latest poll sent cable down to a session low of 1.6203 just as US traders were arriving but it’s clear that smart money has a handle on the situation now and was looking to buy a dip. Cable came right back to 1.6253 and eventually as high as 1.6271 but failed to break the overnight high. We’ll watch for weekend polls.
USD/CAD was bid right through the end of the day, hitting a cycle high at 1.1098. There was no particular driver behind the move but the techs are really starting to point higher.
Same kind of story in AUD/USD as it continued to wilt despite the outstanding jobs report. All that’s holding it up is support ahead of the bid figure. We end near the lows of the day.
Gold finished at the lowest since January. At the rate of USD appreciation, not even 1000 Indian weddings a day would be enough gold buying stop the rout.
Have a great weekend.
Friday Sept 12
