Forex news for Asia trading Monday 11 January 2016
China:
- Yuan (CNH) based overnight Hong Kong rate to its highest since launch in June 2013
- Taiwan's national stability fund chief says fund "actively" buying Taiwan shares
- China says will expand local govt debt quota if increase in downwards pressure on economy
- OK, who blinked? Shanghai Composite now down >3%
- China SAFE official says foreign institutions "talking down" the yuan, but its stable
- China - ‘Pessimism is the dominant sentiment'
- China - People's Daily on yuan , capital outflow
- China stockmarket opening indications - Shanghai Comp to open down 1.7%
- People’s Bank of China (PBOC) sets yuan mid point reference rate 6.5626
- OCBC expects PBOC yuan mid point around 6.5830, Nomura is around 6.5869
- "Hard for China to keep GDP growth of above 6.5%" - more now
- China's top stock market regulator in the hot seat - grilled on circuit breaker
- China Premier Vows No More Strong Stimulus on Economy: BJ News (ps. read the post)
- China Securities Journal: Hard for China to keep GDP growth of above 6.5%
- China - hedge fund says yuan may fall 15% in 2016, more if there's a credit crisis
- China arrests over the weekend. Here's a new one - “disturbing social order”
- Russia Putin says deficit at very dangerous level, needs to be cut
- Australia - ANZ Job Advertisements for December: -0.1% m/m (prior was +1.3%)
- Japan press: Asahi planning 400 bn yen offer for SABMiller brands
- New Zealand - November Building Permits: +1.8% m/m (prior +5.1% m/m)
- The collapse of oil prices 'stole Russia's Christmas'
- French Finance Minister Sapin "convinced" Greece would live up to its reform commitments
- Trade ideas thread for Monday 11 January 2016
- China CPI data out over the weekend, and more to come this week
- Monday morning 11 January 2016 - Forex prices, early indications
Weekend
- 99% of traders can do better if they just do this
- China CPI Dec mm +0.5% vs +0.4% exp
- US deploys a B-52 bomber over South Korea
- PM Cameron says he won't quit if he loses the EU referendum vote
- This quote from Williams shows everything that's wrong with central bankers (and one thing that's right)
- How to trade oil if it falls to $20 - SocGen
- SNB's Jordan expects CHF to stay at current level or weaken
- How to be a global macro currency trader
While we were waiting for some China turmoil today the Rand sneaked in and stole the show in the very early going:
- South African rand was taken to the woodshed this morning - where is it now?
- Currency moves already impacting right at the start of the trading week
- Cable lower too, but ZAR (South African Rand) the biggest loser
Its losses were around 10% against the USD in the space of minutes (its since recovered a good amount since, but not nearly all).
Early movement for other currencies also, commodity and EM currencies lower and the yen stronger, fitting the pattern we have come to expect/
It was then back to waiting for the China open. First the yuan 'fix' which came in barely changed despite the models looking for another devaluation. Its PBOC/politburo driven at present.
Next we had the opening of China's stock markets for the week ... lower. Stocks stabilized slightly higher than the open, but this didn't last. Going into the Chinese market lunch break stocks made new session lows:
- CSI 300 -2.2%
- Shanghai Composite -2.4%
- ChiNext Board-3.3%
- Shenzhen Composite -3.5%
- Hong Kong's Hang Seng Index -2.5%
- Japan was closed today, so no update for the cash equity markets there, but as I podt Nikkei225 futures are showing -1.41%
- ASX -1.31%
Over the course of the session the AUD/USD has recovered its early losses, while the NZD has steadied with a small loss on the loss.
EUR/USD popped higher earlier (above 1.0965) but has given it back, around 1.0912 as I update. Gold is a little stronger on the session while USD/CHF is not much changed.
Cable had an early dip, wiping some stops off the boards under 1.4500 before sharply bouncing toward 1.4560 and settling somewhat now around 1.4525 and thereabouts.
Oil slipped lower again today.
Before we leave China-related news, Hong Kong's yuan overnight HIBOR jumped by a record 939 bps to 13.4% today, more here. Meanwhile, Taiwanese authorities are in buying stocks on their market.
