Forex news for Asia trading on Monday 12 July 2021
- TD see OPEC reaching an agreement and oil dropping to US$70 (but it'll take 12 months ...)
- RBNZ monetary policy meeting this week - preview
- HSBC are looking for a bottoming out USD in coming months.
- Deloitte's says UK capex, employment about to surge most in 7 years
- PBOC sets USD/ CNY reference rate for today at 6.4785 (vs. Friday at 6.4755)
- Japan data - Core machinery orders for May rose m/m and y/y
- JP Morgan expect the Sydney lockdown to drag on economic activity, especially in the current quarter
- ECB Lagarde recap - to change policy guidance at next meeting
- Kiwibank says November 2021 is too early for an RBNZ rate hike
- South Korea first 10 days of July exports +21.2% y/y (per working day)
- Japan data - June PPI +0.6% m/m (expected 0.6%)
- China state financial media say there could be more support for the economy incoming
- New Zealand Retail card spending in June +0.9% m/m (vs. prior +1.7%)
- RBNZ policy meeting this week - shadow board evenly split on tighter policy
- ECB head Lagarde says end of PEPP may be followed by a new format of support
- The RBNZ have released their calendar for policy meetings in 2022 (good timing chaps!)
- Australia coronavirus - Sydney's escalating outbreak to prompt government job support again
- Trade ideas thread - Monday 12 July 2021
- Weekend - ECB's Schnabel said she does not expect that inflation will get 'excessively high'
- Monday morning open levels - indicative forex prices - 12 July 2021
- Dutch covid cases jump 800% in a week
The week kicked off more slowly than usual with the final match of the Euro 2020 (paid in 2021) attracting spectators away from early markets. At the conclusion of the game (ICYMI, Italy won the championship after a penalty 'shoot out' following a deadlock at thend of regualr and then extra time) forex remained moribund though and despite the entry of Japan and then Singapore, Hong Kong, and China, major rates are barely net changed from their late Friday levels of last week.
Casting your eye over your short-term charts you'll see mainly sideways across major FX; where there is any change its very minor indeed.
Fresh news and data flow was light and, obviously, of barely noticeable impact.
Regional equities were a little more active, taking a bit of a boost from higher US markets on Friday, stabilising of US yields, and the People's Bank of China RRR cut Friday. The RRR cut means banks do not have to hold quite so much cash in reserves, which frees up their ability to boost lending. Estimates of the amount thus loosened is circa 1tln yuan. The next major scheduled event from the PBCO is the setting of 1- and 5- year loan prime rates (LPR) on July 20. These rates have been unchanged for the past 14 months.
Bitcoin has up a little
