Forex news for Asia trading Thursday, May 16 2019
- CNBC: "Bitcoin is up 125% this year but could be due for a pullback, experts say"
- RBA Bullock speech not on her economic outlook nor monetary policy.
- AUD - is the unemployment trend enough to prompt an RBA rate cut in June?
- China April home price data: New home prices +0.6% m/m and +10.7% y/y
- Australia Employment Change: +28.4k (expected 15k). Unemployment rate: 5.2% (expected 5.0%)
- PBOC sets USD/ CNY mid-point today at 6.8688 (vs. yesterday at 6.8649)
- Australian May inflation expectations 3.3% (prior 3.9%)
- Trump's 6 month can kick on auto tariffs - does it put a floor under EUR/USD?
- If you are wondering why so many are calling an RBA rate cut in August and November - here you go
- SG says sell AUD/USD rallies, target 0.68
- Japan - PPI for April 1.2% y/y (expected 1.1%)
- Iran's foreign minister says remains committed to nuclear deal
- And, still more: "China's Huawei, 70 affiliates placed on U.S. trade blacklist"
- More on "Trump signs order setting stage to ban Huawei from U.S."
- China press says the Chinese currency will maintain basic stability
- Mexico's dep foreign minister optimistic on lower tariffs from the US
- Gold - supported by trade war uncertainty
- US says Huawei activities are a threat to national security
- Citi expect an RBA cut in August, Morgan Stanley the same
- Goldman Sachs forecasts for EUR/USD - see it lower ahead of ECB meeting
- Citi forecast an RBA rate cut in August
- Trade ideas thread - Thursday 16 May 2019
- Trump signs national emergency order on telecommunications networks
- China's holding of US Treasuries drop for the first time in 4 months
Early news in the time zone came out of the US, with President Trump signing a national emergency order on telecommunications security. This had been pre-empted yesterday but his signature went on the line late Wednesday US time. Further news came out on restrictions on Huawei operating in the country. Tensions between the US and China thus continue to escalate with this latest development. We await now the Chinese response and further escalation.
Currency reaction was subdued, the 'risk barometer' AUD/JPY moved lower but not by much. Ranges were subdued.
The focus switched later to data from Australia, the monthly employment report. The data were mixed, with better employment growth, but in part-time, not full-time, off a huge full-time growth the previous month it should be said. Further muddying the picture was a move higher in the unemployment rate to 5.2%, with the previous month revised higher to 5.1%. The caveat here is that the participation rate jumped again also. Did I mention the picture was muddy? The report should be viewed in the context of leading indicators of employment softening. The RBA is closely watching developments in the labour market, and so, thus, should we. But the picture is not clear IMO.
Across the forex markets ranges were not large. Yen is a touch higher on the session. EUR/USD, cable, USD/CAD are all barely changed while AUD and NZD are both down a little.
Bitcoin cracked to a new recent high during the time zone here today. Gold is steady.
The PBOC slowed the pace of the fall in the onshore yuan, setting USD/CNY up circa 40 points after yesterday's much larger move.
Still to come:
