Forex and Bitcoin news for Asia trading Wednesday 19 September 2018
- North Korea vows to shutter nuclear sites if U.S. meets conditions
- Yuan comments in here More from China's Premier Li - has ample policy tools on economy
- China's Premier Li says should maintain basic principle of free trade
- South and North Korea sign agreement at the end of their summit talks
- BOJ August monetary policy statement - unchanged policy
- BoA/ML highlight 3 big tail risks and 3 crowded trades
- Westpac on the RBA
- PBOC sets USD/ CNY reference rate for today at 6.8569 (vs. yesterday at 6.8554)
- People's Daily says China will use trade war with US to replace imports
- Australia Westpac leading index for August: 0.06% m/m (prior +0.01%)
- Moody's on the Chinese yuan - will show greater volatility
- Japan Trade Balance for August: Y -444.6bn (expected Y -483.2bn)
- The wild west cryptocurrency market – more regulation on the way?
- BoE's Vlieghe says UK pay growth improving "quite slowly"
- More on UK PM May and her view a disorderly Brexit will be avoided
- New Zealand Balance of Payments Current Account for Q3
- EU chief Brexit negotiator giving ground on Irish border after Brexit issue
- UK press report PM May on Brexit: " withdrawal agreement is virtually agreed"
- Goldman Sachs ‘bottom line’ on the Reserve Bank of Australia
- UK PM May wants the EU to show goodwill to avoid disorderly Brexit
- New Zealand data: Westpac Consumer Confidence for Q3: 103.5 (previous 108.6)
- Trade ideas thread - Wednesday 19 September 2018
- Oil - private inventory data shows a surprise build in headline stock
I'll get to the yuan and AUD pretty much right down the bottom of the wrap. I stuck it n the headline as a show of recency bias, K?
The session got an initial move on with reports on a very optimistic UK Prime Minister, with multiple reports she was looking for a good result (soft Brexit deal) with the help of the EU. European Union head Brexit negotiator Barnier (not Narnia) was reported as indicating more accommodation on Northern Ireland. There is more on both in the bullets above.
These stories came together and saw GBP/USD make gains, but a bit of warning on their sustainability came on the limited extent of the move despite it being the thinnest liquidity time of the 24 hour cycle (US gone for the day, Tokyo well short of beginning). Cable struggled above 1.3170 and sure enough has spent the balance of the session here (as I update) spitting back its gains, fully retracing to under 1.3150 (hey, I never said they were big moves, K?).
We had various bits and pieces of news and data crossing. NZ Q2 BOP CA (see bullets above) was a miss, while Japanese export data for August was a beat (ditto), impressive under the developing trade war clouds.
The Bank of Japan policy announcement came early in the expected window, and with an as expected unchanged decision this was par for the course. Yen did basically zero on the announcement.
And so to China. China's Premier Li Keqiang spoke at a World Economic Forum event in Tianjin and rambled on with the usual comforting murmurs on the Chinese economy; steady growth, healthy fundamentals, ample policy options and what have you. But then dropped something more interesting: China will not be devaluing the yuan to stimulate exports. The Australian dollar, in particular, liked it, adding on a quick 25-odd points to pop (but not sustain, as I post) 0.7250. Other currencies ticked a few points up also, EUR/USD, GBP/USD, kiwi, all a few ticks to the better.
In geopol we got some encouraging news from the North/South Korea summit - seemingly an agreement to allow nuclear inspectors into North Korea. There seemed to be little yen impact, USD/JPY has not done a lot all session (it edged a few tics to the better but only had a 15 or so point range on the session).
Still to come:
- Brexit meeting in Salzburg, Austria (no, not Australia)
- Heads up for UK inflation data due Tuesday 18 September 2018 - preview
- Preview of the UK data coming up today - August inflation numbers
- (Not many) FX option expiries on Wednesday 19 September 2018
- Forex option expiries for later this week
- NZD traders - preview of the GDP data due tomorrow (2245GMT Wednesday)
- an early one … preview - Morgan Stanley: FOMC meeting to send strong signal on intent to hike in December