Forex news for Asia trading for Monday 5 October 2020
- NEC nears a deal to buy Swiss banking software provider Avaloq (circa $2.2 bn deal)
- Federal Reserve FOMC September meeting minutes are due this week - preview
- Not FX, but a useful read on how COVID-19 appears to spread - an overlooked variable?
- Coming up on Tuesday - Fed Chair Powell speaking
- Australian construction PMI for September 45.2 (prior 37.9)
- FX option expiries for Monday October 5 at the 10am NY cut
- Jibun Bank/Markit Services 46.9 and Composite 46.6 PMI (final) for September
- New Zealand to ease COVID-19 restrictions in Auckland
- Three warning signs Trump may be sicker than we are being led to believe
- Australia's monthly inflation indicator +0.1% m/m and +1.3% y/y
- New Zealand - ANZ Commodity Price index for September -0.2% m/m (prior -1.0%)
- Australia raising the roof (debt ceiling) in tomorrow budget
- Mnuchin and Trump spoke over the weekend re stimulus
- Australia will boost transport infrastructure spending by AUD 7.5bn
- Norwegian oil workers begin expansion of strike on Monday
- Australia services PMI 50.8 and composite 51.1
- The White House says Trump is now back in his hospital suite at Walter Reed
- A heads up for US futures opening at the top of the hour - to get a Trump drive by boost?
- Heads up for Trump maybe to make a public appearance outside hospital
- President Trump didn’t disclose positive test result for Covid-19 on Thursday
- New Zealand's Fonterra to sell its China dairy farms
- Trade ideas thread - Monday 5 October 2020
- You can buy the commemorative "TRUMP DEFEATS COVID" coin for just $100
- UK PM Johnson (weekend remarks) - doesn't want a no-deal Brexit but can live with it
- US' McConnell (weekend comments) - "we’re closer to getting an outcome" (on stimulus package)
- Ireland's top health advisors advise stage 3 COVID-19 lockdown
- France has raised the alert level in Paris region - to maximum COVID-19 alert level
- Coronavirus - New York City seeks to reinstate virus restrictions in some spots
- Economic calendar due from Asia today - Monday 5 October 2020
- Coronavirus - UK press reports a new three-tier lockdown system is being planned for England
- Monday morning open levels - indicative forex prices - 5 October 2020
Weekend
- Trump could be discharged as soon as Monday - Doctor
- Biden extends polling lead in WSJ/NBC poll
- White House doctor says Trump fever-free, off supplemental oxygen
- Japan govmt planning to approve COVID-19 treatment drug Avigan in November
- Trump doctor says he incorrectly used terms '72 hours' and '48 hours'
- Chris Christie gets COVID-19 as the list tied to the White House grows
- Trump not on oxygen, will stay 5 days in hospital - doctor
- Polls show Trump trailing in Florida and Pennsylvania
- UK and EU agree to intensify Brexit negotiations
- Trump leaves White House for Walter Reed Military Medical Center
- Fed's Mester: Next phase of recovery will be hardest
- McConnell says getting 'closer' on stimulus negotiations
- Trump treated with Regeneron antibody cocktail, has low-grade fever
Weekend and early Monday Asia was dominated by updates (and spin) on the progress of Trump's coronavirus treatment. The latest was Trump posting a Twitter video of himself appearing much improved and then a little later making a masked appearance outside the hospital in an SUV as part of a motorcade, from which he waved. Trump's vehicle made a lap of the block before he returned to his hospital suite. This was about 30 minutes before Sunday evening trade commenced on Globex, which may (or may not) be a coincidence; equity index futures traded stronger. Since the lap there has been nothing further.
Apart from Trump's apparent improvement, COVID-19 related news otherwise was net not very positive with further lockdown moves mooted for France, Ireland, NY and perhaps the UK.
As Asia trade became more active some of the less fearful sentiment seeped into forex rates, with EUR, AUD and NZD all gaining. Yen and CHF diverged, with yen losing out due to the sentiment improvement but also due to news that NEC was on the bid for Swiss software company Avaloq. Yen weakened and CHF strengthened.
Floating by barely noticed during the session was the Australian private inflation data. This is produced monthly and fills in the blanks left by official CPI data in Australia only once a quarter. The trimmed mean shown in today's result was a miserly 0.1% y/y. This compares to the current RBA forecast of 1% and while there is basically a consensus on no policy move from the RBA at their meeting on Tuesday a number like this will surely raise eyebrows at the Bank and increases the likelihood of a move in November or December.
As I post currencies are near their highs for the session against the USD. US equity indexes are near their highs for the day also.
