Forex news for Asia trading Tuesday May 7 201
- Bitcoin is getting a bit of a run higher
- New Zealand - inflation expectations for Q2: 2.01% (prior 2.02%)
- Goldman Sachs sees oil price bouncing from the pullback
- Citi has shut down one of its private stock trading venues (dark pool)
- Latest egg news. And Australian election news. In the one post.
- Australia retail sales (March): 0.3% m/m (expected +0.2%)
- Australia Trade balance for March AUD +4949m (expected AUD +4480m)
- PBOC sets USD/ CNY central rate at 6.7614 (vs. yesterday at 6.7344)
- More from Fed's Kaplan - Not yet inclined to lower rates to deal with inflation
- Japan Nikkei/Markit Manufacturing PMI April (final): 50.2 (prior 49.2)
- Fed's Kaplan says concerned that global economic growth is decelerating
- Australia - weekly consumer confidence 117.3 (prior 117.6)
- Australia PMI data, Construction index falls 3 points in April, to 42.6
- NZD traders - heads up for GDT dairy auction day Tuesday London time
- Yen crosses lower - Lighthizer and Mnuchin confirming higher China tariffs to come on Friday
- US trade representative Lighthizer says US tariffs on China will rise on Friday
- Trade ideas thread - Tuesday 7 May 2019
US trade representative Lighthizer and US Treasury Secretary Mnuchin had remarks on deteriorating US-China trade negotiations reported as North American markets were shutting down for Monday. The gist was that negotiations have stalled, indeed gone backwards (they said China had reneged on commitments made) and that unless there was some change in tone from the talks to continue this week the higher tariffs President Trump threatened in his Sunday tweets would indeed be implemented on Friday.
Yen crosses took a bit of a hit, with flows into yen. AUD/JPY was one of the worst hit, but it did not fall anywhere near the extent it did in early trade on Monday and has since retraced nearly all of its drop. AUD/USD has since traded above its overnight US time high (albeit briefly). We had data today from Australia, m/m retail sales came in at a beat, quarterly retail volumes were a big miss (and will not be a positive for Q1 GDP data) while the March trade surplus was large, ahead of estimates, with the February surplus revised even higher. If there is a negative in the figures it is not in exports, these are strong. Imports of consumer goods, though continue to point to weak spending.
All this ahead of the RBA, due at 0430GMT. Market pricing and analysts views are line ball on this one, its a toss-up 50/50 whether we get a rate cut or not. Given Lowe's track record I am guessing the Board will hold again today, but move to a more explicit easing bias. A confounding factor for today is the federal election 11 days away.
NZD/USD has had a small range and is barely changed for the session, although on its lows. EUR/USD has tracked a touch higher in a small range, back towards its North American highs on Monday. Cable has had a run higher, up circa 20 points on the session here. USD/JPY, after falling on the earlier trade news had a retrace but has since dropped back to near its early lows. Japanese markets reopened today after their 10-day break.
China and HK stock markets recovered some of their Monday losses.
Still to come:
RBA due at 0430GMT - Three of four of the big Australian banks say no rate cut from the RBA today
