Forex news for Asia trading Tuesday 8 September 2015

ForexLive Asia FX news wrap: Ugly China export and import data again ignite EUR and yen

Forex news for Asia trading Tuesday 8 September 2015

Japan

  • Japan PM Abe says halfway through the course of Abenomics
  • More on Japan Q2 GDP - Inventory gains added 0.3% to growth
  • Japan BOP and bank lending data
  • Japan Q2 GDP (final): -0.3% q/q (-0.5% expected)
  • Japanese PM Abe wins second term - no challenger emerged
  • Recap - BOJ could be losing confidence on growth

Straya and New Zealand:

  • NZ finmin English: Treasury forecasts of 2% GDP growth is less than in budget
  • Westpac cut AUD/USD end of 2015 forecast to 0.66 from 0.70
  • Australian data - NAB Business Confidence data for August: 1, but conditions soar to 11
  • Comments from RBA's Ellis in Q&A
  • Statistics New Zealand corrects some CPI figures for the March and June 2015 quarters
  • ANZ Roy Morgan weekly Consumer Sentiment: 106.7 (prior was 113.3)
  • RBA's Ellis: Comments from her speech on financial stabilityNew Zealand Manufacturing Activity for Q2: Sales volumes -0.2% q/q
  • Iron Ore prices continue rebound
  • New Zealand - ANZ Truckometer for August: -0.6% m/m (prior was -0.3%)

China

  • August trade balance from China hitting now ... exports, imports both down
  • Goldmans, Deutsche Bank & JPMorgan reckon we should chill out on China contagion risks
  • Yuan reference rate for today set by the PBOC at 6.3639
  • China - Xinhua reports NDRC approves 77bn yuan in road, bridge investments
  • Société Générale recommend a GBP/JPY short
  • Research paper shows there was no manipulation of the FX 'fix'
  • UBS says gold is currently in no mans land
  • UK data - BRC Sales like-for-like for August: -1.0% (+0.9% expected)
  • BlackRock ready to increase China real estate portfolio exposure - sees good entry points
  • "Milk is cheaper than water in Europe". So, EU to give more subsidies to its farmers.
  • Bridgewater's Dalio says ECB needs to accelerate QE to keep euro low
  • Fed's Williams on a September hike ... "sounded like a man very much on the fence"
  • Trade ideas thread for Tuesday 8 September 2015

A day of multiple moving parts, not just the Chinese stock markets.

USD/JPY gained some ground as Q2 GDP data (final) confirmed the second quarter weakness. Talk of more BOJ action to come was again rekindled.

Next up was the opening of Chinese share markets, which while volatile was not nearly as much so as it has been.

Australian data, in the form of business confidence and conditions caused the next decent FX market move, with AUD/USD marked higher as business conditions in the survey showed a huge improvement. NZD/USD went along for the ride with the AUD.

China's August trade data was next, showing falling exports, falling imports and another huge trade surplus. It ignited talk once again of further government stimulus for the economy, and also the potential for another bout of yuan depreciation. The moves we saw of a few weeks ago, which have only just dissipated somewhat, began again, with a higher yen and then EUR. Similarly, US stocks have come under a bit of pressure, reaching Globex session lows (but the fall has not been large).

Along with EUR and JPY, CHF was a big beneficiary also.

As I update, EUR and yen are both near to session highs.