- Greece enters new phase of uncertainty after weekend elections
- Socialist candidate Hollande ousts Sarkozy in France
- Italian PM corresponded with all leaders after weekend results
- Norwegian Sovereign wealth fund still seen selling EZ debt: FT
- BOJ minutes from April 9-10 meeting
- Australian March retail sales +0.9% MoM, +0.2% expected
- NAB measure of Australian business confidence +1 to 4
- ANZ measure of total Australian job ads -3.1% MoM
- Australian building approvals +7.4% in March
- Oil falls heavily again after big drop on Friday, -2% to $96.80/bbl
- HK and Tokyo -2.5%; other regional Bourses -1.75%
EUR/USD closed in NY on Friday near 1.3080, opened in interbank trade near 1.3055, and quickly moved lower as risk-aversion and EUR-bearish sentiment escalated. The Greek results were the main factor with more political uncertainty now ahead. Barrier protection at 1.3000 did hold for a while but eventually it broke, triggering heavy stop-loss selling below there and again below 1.2975. The low was at a 61.8% Fibonacci level at 1.2955 but the market has been unable to reclaim 1.3000 and has idled at 1.2980 for last few hours. Heavy stop-loss selling in EUR/JPY was also a significant factor. Ranges: 1.2955/1.3063; EUR/JPY 103.22/104.08
AUD/USD fell alongside the EUR/USD as risk-aversion picked up. Momentum funds were heavy sellers but corporate bids and technical support at 1.0115 helped support. There was strong retail sales data which will lower the prospects of a rate cut next month and this along with the buliding approvals and business confidence data, helped the AUD off its lows. Ranges: 1.0106/67
USD/JPY fell in early trade under the weight of EUR/JPY selling but very solid bids between 79.60/70 helped steady the ship. It’s been relatively quiet since inside a 79.65/98 range.
Cable also fell alongside the slumping EUR but losses were limited by a soggy EUR/GBP cross. Ranges: 1.6112/57; EUR/GBP .8033/67
EUR/CHF touched 1.2003 in early interbank trade but has steadied since in its usual 1.2010/15 range.