• Relatively busy session explodes into life in late trade as stop-loss hunting emerges
  • Analysis emerges early in session putting a different spin on Juncker’s comments from yesterday and EUR got a ‘bid tone’ early
  • UK consumer confidence shows strong rebound
  • Japanese CPI shows economy coming out of deflation
  • Japan’s retail sales slightly better than expected
  • USD/CNY fixed at record low below 6.4900 which triggered some stop loss selling in USD/Asia which in turn encouraged USD selling against the majors
  • ACBs noted intervening to buy USD/Asia, which they undoubtedly recycled immediately into EUR, CHF etc..
  • Gold unchanged at $1522/oz, Silver +0.7% at $37.60/oz
  • Most regional bourses +0.5% on average, but Nikkei and Shanghai flat

EUR/USD closed in NY around 1.4135 after falling from 1.4200 to 1.4070 on comments made by Juncker regarding the IMF and Greek aid. After early probes in a tight range, trailing stops were triggered above 1.4170 before the EUR/USD settled into a comfortable 20 pip range. This changed dramatically in the last hour when stops above 1.4215 were targeted and easily triggered, followed by more stops above 1.4250 which saw the market gap again to session highs above 1.4275. EUR made strong gains also on the crosses against the GBP, JPY and AUD but lost ground and posted a new historic low against the CHF. Ranges: EUR/USD 1.4123/1.4278, EUR/CHF 1.2160/1.2253

USD/CHF was again the ringleader as the market targeted stops below .8550 ahead of the long holiday weekend in both the UK and the US. It fell from .8620 to .8560 in a matter of seconds and eventually broke lower to post a new record low at .8530.

AUD/USD was led again by the EUR and by the NZD. Some rumours about a NZ bank downgrade saw the NZD/USD fall from .8120 to .8070 in early trade before real demand emerged and the pair gapped higher to .8170. AUD/USD has been led rather than leading in a 1.0604/1.0718 range.

GBP made some good ground on the crosses overnight but gave it all back as EUR/GBP short-covering and another record low in GBP/CHF set the tone and the market ignored the strong consumer confidence data. Ranges: Cable 1.6378/1.6447, EUR/GBP .8618/80

USD/JPY has again been at the mercy of the crosses but it did manage to trigger stops below 80.90, though failed to get at bigger stops below 80.80. Ranges: 80.84/81.39, EUR/JPY 114.66/115.69